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ABSTRACT We present the 2023 U.S. Geological Survey time-independent earthquake rupture forecast for the conterminous United States, which gives authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time-averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes throughout the region. In addition to updating virtually all model components, a major focus has been to provide a better representation of epistemic uncertainties. For example, we have improved the representation of multifault ruptures, both in terms of allowing more and less fault connectivity than in the previous models, and in sweeping over a broader range of viable models. An unprecedented level of diagnostic information has been provided for assessing the model, and the development was overseen by a 19-member participatory review panel. Although we believe the new model embodies significant improvements and represents the best available science, we also discuss potential model limitations, including the applicability of logic tree branch weights with respect different types of hazard and risk metrics. Future improvements are also discussed, with deformation model enhancements being particularly worthy of pursuit, as well as better representation of sampling errors in the gridded seismicity components. We also plan to add time-dependent components, and assess implications with a wider range of hazard and risk metrics. 

ABSTRACT The largest earthquake since 1954 to strike the state of Nevada, United States, ruptured on 15 May 2020 along the Monte Cristo range of west-central Nevada. The Mw 6.5 event involved predominantly left-lateral strike-slip faulting with minor normal components on three aligned east–west-trending faults that vary in strike by 23°. The kinematic rupture process is determined by joint inversion of Global Navigation Satellite Systems displacements, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data, regional strong motions, and teleseismic P and SH waves, with the three-fault geometry being constrained by InSAR surface deformation observations, surface ruptures, and relocated aftershock distributions. The average rupture velocity is 1.5  km/s, with a peak slip of ∼1.6  m and a ∼20  s rupture duration. The seismic moment is 6.9×1018  N·m. Complex surface deformation is observed near the fault junction, with a deep near-vertical fault and a southeast-dipping fault at shallow depth on the western segment, along which normal-faulting aftershocks are observed. There is a shallow slip deficit in the Nevada ruptures, probably due to the immature fault system. The causative faults had not been previously identified and are located near the transition from the Walker Lane belt to the Basin and Range province. The east–west geometry of the system is consistent with the eastward extension of the Mina Deflection of the Walker Lane north of the White Mountains. 

The US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was updated in 2023 for all 50 states using new science on seismicity, fault ruptures, ground motions, and probabilistic techniques to produce a standard of practice for public policy and other engineering applications (defined for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years). Changes in 2023 time-independent seismic hazard (both increases and decreases compared to previous NSHMs) are substantial because the new model considers more data and updated earthquake rupture forecasts and ground-motion components. In developing the 2023 model, we tried to apply best available or applicable science based on advice of co-authors, more than 50 reviewers, and hundreds of hazard scientists and end-users, who attended public workshops and provided technical inputs. The hazard assessment incorporates new catalogs, declustering algorithms, gridded seismicity models, magnitude-scaling equations, fault-based structural and deformation models, multi-fault earthquake rupture forecast models, semi-empirical and simulation-based ground-motion models, and site amplification models conditioned on shear-wave velocities of the upper 30 m of soil and deeper sedimentary basin structures. Seismic hazard calculations yield hazard curves at hundreds of thousands of sites, ground-motion maps, uniform-hazard response spectra, and disaggregations developed for pseudo-spectral accelerations at 21 oscillator periods and two peak parameters, Modified Mercalli Intensity, and 8 site classes required by building codes and other public policy applications. Tests show the new model is consistent with past ShakeMap intensity observations. Sensitivity and uncertainty assessments ensure resulting ground motions are compatible with known hazard information and highlight the range and causes of variability in ground motions. We produce several impact products including building seismic design criteria, intensity maps, planning scenarios, and engineering risk assessments showing the potential physical and social impacts. These applications provide a basis for assessing, planning, and mitigating the effects of future earthquakes.